Ok. Here's the moment no one has been waiting for: my Super Bowl pick (Bill's pick is in red)!
Cardinals (+7) over Steelers
I just don't understand why some people think Pittsburgh is going to blow out Arizona. They claim Pittsburgh's defense is just too tough, but Arizona had absolutely no problem scoring on Philadelphia last weekend, a team with a defense comparable to Pittsburgh's. Let's crunch some numbers:
Total yards allowed per game
Pittsburgh: 237.2, Philadelphia: 274.3
Passing Yards allowed per game
Pittsburgh: 156.9, Philadelphia: 182.1
Rushing yards allowed per game
Pittsburgh: 80.2, Philadelphia: 92.2
Points allowed per game
Pittsburgh: 13.9, Philadelphia: 18.1
Total sacks
Pittsburgh: 51, Philadelphia: 48
Total interceptions
Pittsburgh: 20, Philadelphia 15
The Steelers defense is only slightly better than the Eagles defense. The same Eagles defense that gave up 32 points last week to Arizona.
Some people say that Pittsburgh's going to get to Kurt Warner. Warner was sacked 28 times this past season. Only 10 teams' QBs were sacked fewer times. In my opinion, Pittsburgh's the team that needs to be concerned about sacks as Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 49 times this season.
A lot of people have been talking about Pittsburgh having Super Bowl experience. Want to know how Roethlisberger did in Super Bowl XL? 9-21 for 123 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs. They won that game in spite of him, not because of him. If that's what you call Super Bowl experience, maybe Arizona is better off being Super Bowl Virgins.
Here's how the game's going to go down: Arizona is going to come out throwing and do little running. They've got three 1,000-yard receivers, three running backs that can catch the ball, and a QB that averaged nearly 300 passing yards a game this season. Dance with the girl you came with, you know?
Here's the important part: there is simply no way Pittsburgh's offense can keep up with Arizona. While Arizona's defense is below average, Pittsburgh's offense is just as bad.
For Pittsburgh to have any success on offense, they're going to have to pound Willie Parker all day while Roethlisberger completes short passes to Heath Miller (just look at the success Philadelphia's TE, Brent Celek, had against the Cardinals last weekend). But I don't think it will be enough. Not only will Pittsburgh fail to cover the spread, but Arizona will win this game outright.
By at least seven points.
Last Week
Me: 1-1Simmons: 2-0
2009 Playoffs
Me: 6-4Simmons: 4-6
Song of the day: Arizona by Mark Lindsay
